All of this may appear to make continued insurance savings a foregone conclusion in the new year — a development that consumer advocates argue is both just and necessary. Predictions from industry spokespeople point in that direction, but specifics are still being worked out.

The uncertainty about price cuts in 2021 may have reached drivers, which may explain why a majority of respondents in a new InsuredCircle poll expected little change in their car insurance costs this year. And why did just as many other respondents predict a cost increase in 2020 as a price decrease?

According to insiders, here's what to expect for your car insurance bills in 2021, including whether to shop around for a policy, possibly using sites like InsuredCircle new auto-insurance comparison tool.

Will car insurance prices drop in 2021?

Despite the 10-year trend of rising insurance rates, experts predict lower car-insurance costs in 2021, but only with a high degree of certainty.

“I would say premiums should fall in general in 2021, assuming losses have fallen again,” says Fabio Faschi, property and casualty operations manager at Policygenius.

But, according to Faschi, it will be some time before we get more clarity, in part because insurers are still analyzing 2020 data, trying to figure out how and to what extent last year's dramatic changes in our driving behavior will carry over into this year. “Because the industry had an unprecedented year,” he says, “it is unclear what those numbers mean in 2021.”

“I believe rates will be slightly lower. Our accidents are down by about 20%, if not more,” says Douglas Heller, an insurance expert with the Consumer Federation of America, a consumer advocacy organization. “At the most basic level,” he predicts, “insurance rates in the coming year may be a little bit lower than they were going into 2020.”

Allstate has announced rate cuts ranging from 5% to 8% beginning February 18 in states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. However, Deloitte's Carrier sees the good-hands firm as a minority. He claims that most insurance companies are in a “wait and see” mode as they try to figure out how much of the changes in our driving habits will stick even after daily life begins to resemble B.C. — as in “Before COVID.”

“Broadly speaking, 2021 is fraught with uncertainty,” says Jacob van Cleef, consumer watchdog associate at US PIRG.

“We have two opposing forces — we have the vaccine starting to be rolled out, but people are also thinking we might have to shut down again, especially with the current spike in [COVID-19] cases,” he says.

A InsuredCircle poll reveals what drivers expect.

In fact, Americans as a whole are less optimistic about a reduction in the cost of auto insurance this year than experts are.

In an InsuredCircle poll, a slim majority — 54 percent — of 2,200 respondents surveyed in late January about their financial plans and outlook for 2021 said they expected to pay about the same for car insurance in 2021. Those who expected a change were fairly evenly split between expecting to pay much more (5%) or slightly more (10%) and less (6%) or slightly less (8%) than they did in 2020.

Many drivers received pandemic-related rebates or refunds from their car insurance companies last year, and those rebates may have influenced survey respondents' calculations for 2021. Or, according to the Insurance Information Institute, the expectation may simply reflect a resignation to rising car-insurance rates, which have been a reality for the average driver in every year between 2010 and 2019.

There is a little more agreement on what will be driving any cost changes in 2021. The pandemic will be a major (27%) or minor (33%) factor, according to the majority, but more than one-quarter (41%) say it will not be a factor at all. (Due to rounding, the total exceeds 100%.)

How consumers might get relief

If insurers (and even drivers) are unsure where rates will go, consumer advocates are adamant that auto insurance prices should fall. They argue that insurers could — and should — be more generous in passing on savings they have reaped and may reap in the future to their customers.

PIRG conducted a thorough examination of how and how much insurers returned to customers in the United States last year. Based on his analysis of the data, van Cleef concludes that insurance companies have been overly conservative in returning customers' money, given how much money they make and the deep financial pain that millions of American families are experiencing. “We're talking about money here that could be used to pay for groceries or other necessities,” he says.

“I believe it is almost certain that rates will be higher than necessary in 2021, as the impact of the pandemic on driving will last for at least several months,” Heller says.

“We've been driving much less, and after giving back a little in the spring, the insurance companies have pocketed all the excess since then and reported windfall profits to their shareholders,” he adds.

Heller also observes insurers using a double standard depending on whether rate changes benefit or harm them. “Whenever there is evidence that accidents are increasing or that people are driving more, insurance companies rush to raise rates, but they have been slow-walking the savings that we should all be receiving in the aftermath of this pandemic.”

Van Cleef points out that any relief for drivers may not necessarily come in the form of lower premiums. Instead, as in 2020, they could be delivered as rebates or refunds on previously paid premiums, which he believes is the more likely option for insurers.

The uncertain outlook for rates makes it prudent to shop around for car insurance in 2021, whether by getting quotes from individual companies or using comparison sites.